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Texas State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Game Preview

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Texas State vs. New Mexico State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins the game between the Bobcats and Aggies.


Texas State vs. New Mexico State Game Preview

When: Saturday, November 19 – 4:00 p.m. ET
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Broadcast: ESPN3

There’s a four-team race to the bottom of the Sun Belt Conference that Texas State and New Mexico State are hoping to avoid. The teams share 2-7 marks that have eliminated both from postseason contention. The Aggies have dropped four in a row, beating only Louisiana-Lafayette on Oct. 1 and rival New Mexico in Week 2. The similarly challenged Bobcats are riding a five-game skid, with their wins coming over FCS Incarnate Word and Ohio in the opener, an outcome that has become increasingly surprising as the season has unfolded.

What To Know About Texas State

The Bobcats aren’t just losing games; they’re getting worse as the season grows longer. Last week, they were dominated at home by Idaho, getting outgained, 490-175. The defense is among the worst in the country, yielding 491 yards and 41 points per game. And now the offense is getting mauled at the lineup, crushing the effectiveness of multi-dimensional quarterback Tyler Jones. Jones is being treated like a speed bag, which could compel first-year coach Everett Withers to give some reps to backup Eddie Printz, a transfer from Missouri.

What to Know About New Mexico State

The Aggies are similar to the Bobcats for all the wrong reasons—poor O-line play and a defense that’s not performing anywhere near an FBS level. The difference in this game is that New Mexico State has a higher ceiling on offense. It has the game’s best player, running back Larry Rose III, who’s healthy again and rushed for 168 yards last week against Arkansas State. And quarterback Tyler Rogers can move the chains when he’s not fielding constant pressure. He’s thrown for 13 scores and 2,402 yards, despite being sacked 30 times this season.

Advantages

Offense: New Mexico State. Rose can change the entire tempo of a game with one cut and a burst through the second level of the defense.

Defense: Push. The Aggies and the Bobcats are two of the worst defenses at this level, combining for only 14 sacks all year.

Special Teams: Texas State. But only because New Mexico State is making the case for worst special teams unit in the FBS.

Coaching: New Mexico State. Doug Martin gets the slight upper hand based on his nearly four years of experience in Las Cruces.

Intangibles: New Mexico State. The Aggies are happy to be home, where they’ve played quite well this fall, for the first time in almost a month.

Matchup To Watch

Rose vs. Texas State linebackers Gabe Lloyd and Bryan London

If the Bobcats don’t take the right angles and wrap up in space, Rose is liable to turn this matchup into his own personal NFL showcase. Withers will again bank on the first-year London, who leads the team in tackles, and Lloyd, a JUCO transfer from St. Louis.

Texas State vs. New Mexico State Betting Odds

Spread: New Mexico State -9.5
Over/Under: 66

Texas State vs. New Mexico State Prediction

It’s a rare chance to win a game, and the Aggies aren’t about to squander it. New Mexico State is a markedly better team in Las Cruces, where it has won twice and almost upset Georgia Southern. Plus, Rose is set to stampede through the overmatched Texas State defense. Unlike many of his teammates, who are gassed at this time of the year, Rose is just beginning to heat up. He’ll ambush the Bobcats for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns in a one-sided Aggie win.

Texas State vs. New Mexico State Score Prediction: New Mexico State 41, Texas State 20

MORE: 1-128 College Football Rankings – Week 12

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