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Troy vs. Texas State Prediction, Game Preview

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Troy vs. Texas State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins the game between the Trojans and Bobcats.


Troy vs. Texas State Game Preview

When: Saturday, November 26 – 4:00 p.m. ET
Where: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Broadcast: ESPN3

The Sun Belt Conference was there for the taking for Troy, fresh off an emotional win over Appalachian State that appeared to seal the deal. But Arkansas State had another ending in mind, pounding the 25th-ranked Trojans, 35-3, in their own building last Thursday. Troy is still mathematically alive, but it would require two wins and a complete collapse from the Red Wolves in the final two games. Texas State is one of this year’s worst FBS programs, losing eight straight to FBS opponents. The last two, to Idaho and New Mexico State by a combined score of 97-24, is indicative of how much work is ahead for first-year coach Everett Withers.

What To Know About Troy

Who was that team last week? The Trojans were one of the Group of Five’s most complete programs through the first nine games, rolling behind a balanced offense and a defense that was gobbling up turnovers and big-play sacks. But the Red Wolves unexpectedly exposed Troy, which lost the turnover battle and was whipped at the line of scrimmage. It’s up to Neal Brown and the staff to get the kids beyond the disappointment of last week and refocused on entering the postseason with as much momentum as possible.

What to Know About Texas State

Withers inherited a very difficult assignment from Dennis Franchione, taking the reins of a roster that lacks the talent to keep pace, even in the Sun Belt. Depth and motivation have become problems, as the losses have gotten increasingly lopsided. Hope at the beginning of the season centered on dual-threat QB Tyler Jones, who accounted for 24 touchdowns in 2015. But his protection has been iffy and his decisions have been even worse. The defense in San Marcos is not competing at an FBS level. Texas State is allowing almost 42 points per game, while ranking 113th nationally in yards per play yielded.

Advantages

Offense: Troy. Last week’s inability to reach the end zone was an anomaly. The Trojans are balanced out of the backfield, led by quarterback Brandon Silvers and running back Jordan Chunn.

Defense: Troy. No contest, with the Trojans yielding only 23 points per game and getting steady pressure from linemen Rashad Dillard and Baron Poole.

Special Teams: Troy. Ryan Kay has provided a consistent presence to the Trojan special teams unit, both as a punter and a placekicker.

Coaching: Troy. Even after the loss to Arkansas State, Neal Brown is a riser in the coaching ranks and an inventive offensive tactician.

Intangibles: Troy. Sure, the Trojans could be hanging their heads en route to Texas this weekend, but the Bobcats are physically and mentally gassed and eager to start the offseason.

Matchup To Watch

Dillard vs. Texas State OT Ryan Melton

Melton is the Bobcats’ best pocket protector. But he’s also a lumbering 6-5 and 329 pounds, which will make it difficult to seal the edge on Dillard, who’s 6-1 and 255 pounds and quick off the snap from his ‘bandit’ position on the defense.

Troy vs. Texas State Betting Odds

Spread: Troy -25
Over/Under: No line as of post

Troy vs. Texas State Prediction

The talent gap between these schools is wide. Like, about as wide as two Sun Belt programs can be. And while Brown has his work cut out for him getting the Trojans motivated again, they’ll dominate the Bobcats on both sides of the ball. Silvers and Chunn will spearhead a diverse attack against the overmatched Texas State D. And Jones operating in comeback mode will lead to multiple picks that thwart any visions of a monumental upset that snaps the extended losing streak.

Troy vs. Texas State Score Prediction: Troy 48, Texas State 10

MORE: 1-128 College Football Rankings – Week 13

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